The experience of domestic and foreign studies demonstrates a growth of interest in the problem of rational distribution of public financial resources as social investments in human capital development, which is described in our paper with the help of demographic development parameters; this corresponds to the modern tradition of considering the relationship of economic and social dynamics in extreme regions through the prism of demographic changes. In this context, the perspective estimates of public spending on the social sphere in relation to the Far East, a region that was proclaimed a strategic priority of Russia in the 21st century, are of particular value. The goal of our study is to develop and test the tools that allow us to quantify the scale and structure of public spending on education, healthcare and social policy, and that promote the achievement of the target values set out in the concept of demographic policy of the Far East for the period up to 2025. Using the model constructions built on the basis of dynamic data for 2000–2017, we obtain the estimates of the impact of social investment on demographic development parameters on the example of Khabarovsk Krai. In the framework of traditional approach to the quantitative analysis of regression dependences we also use distributed lag models that take into consideration cumulative effects. We find out that the growth of public spending and the increase in social investment in the economy of the Far East do not lead to positive changes in demographic indicators. The region continues to lose its population despite high unit costs and social support. We reveal that large-scale public expenditures influence demographic indicators in different ways, depending on the period of “lagged effect”. We substantiate an optimal structure of distribution of social investments, which can ensure the achievement of target indicators of demographic development in Khabarovsk Krai, proceeding from objective conditions and potential opportunities of the region. Our findings reflect the real situation adequately and can be used to assess the effectiveness of state demographic and social policy measures. A promising direction for further research can be the adaptation of the proposed tools and obtaining integral estimates based on an expanded set of factors describing the system of demographic and socio-economic processes in the Far East
Keywords
social sphere, demography, far east, budget expenditures, social investments