The paper assesses the possibility of raising the retirement age to mitigate the effects of ageing
on the pension system of Russia. The authors make demographic forecasts based on hypotheses about the
presence of global demographic trends in population reproduction and manifestations of development
features specific for Russia. The demographic forecast is based on the age shifting method according to three
scenarios. The forecast takes into account the provisions of a draft law that has already been approved and
that provides for a gradual increase in age limit for civil servants, both men and women, to 65 years (by six
months each year). The following assumption is made for the purpose of studying the effects of raising the
retirement age to 65 years for all categories of Russian citizens. The increase in the retirement age begins
in 2016 at the rate of 6 months per year, and it will end for men in 2026 and for women – in 2036. Thus, by
2036, the official retirement age will be 65 years for both sexes. The resulting forecasts show that population
ageing in Russia is an inevitable process. Depending on whether demographic processes are in line with
global trends or whether certain specific Russian features of development are revealed, ageing process will
occur in the first case – “from above”, in the second case – “from below”. The forecast has confirmed
a well-known paradox that if the situation regarding the decline in mortality is improved further, as has
happened in recent years, then the pace of ageing that negatively affects the balance of the pension system
will be even higher, at least in the medium term. Forecast calculations have shown that, first, demographic
burden on the working population will continue to increase under any demographic development scenario
implemented in Russia, and most significantly, under a scenario that describes a successful demographic
policy. Second, the number of retirement age women is a significant potential reserve for decreasing the
demographic burden on able-bodied population. It appears that raising the retirement age is feasible but
it should be carefully prepared so as to be implemented gradually and accompanied by several additional
measures
Keywords
population ageing, retirement age, pension system, demographic forecast, global demographic trends and russian peculiarities